Using the so-called pinball loss for estimating conditional quantiles is a wellknown tool in both statistics and machine learning. So far, however, only little work has been done to quantify the efficiency of this tool for non-parametric (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. The goal of this work is to fill this gap by establishing inequalities that describe how close approximate pinball risk minimizers are to the corresponding conditional quantile. These inequalities, which hold under mild assumptions on the data-generating distribution, are then used to establish so-called variance bounds, which recently turned out to play an important role in the statistical analysis of (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. To illustrate the use of our new inequalities, we then utilize them to establish an oracle inequality for support vector machines that use the pinball loss. Here, it turns out that we obtain learning rates, which are optimal in a min-max sense under some standard assumptions on the regularity of the conditional quantile function.
I. Steinwart and A. Christmann, Estimating Conditional Quantiles with the Help of the Pinball Loss. Los Alamos National Laboratory Technical Report LA-UR-08-4612, submitted for publication, 2008. [ Abstract | PDF (169 KB) ]
